On Saturday 16/2/2013 Black Caviar made a successful return to racing in the Lightning Stakes named in his honour. She was always going to be long odds on, even though it had been 8 months since she had run in England. Some of the corporate bookies had special offers such as double their odds ( 1.06 x 2 ) but with a maximum of $200 it was hard getting too excited.
So what other alternatives are there ?
Well there are Quinellas, Exactas, Trifectas and FirstFours. Punters have a tendency to overbet short priced favs for 1st in Trifectas and FirstFours. Taking a Quinella with BC is a low value bet if the fav wins as it also includes BC to run 2nd.
Take a Dutchbook Exacta
But for some reason short priced favs in Exactas are generally underbet and so this was where I decided to place my sentimental money. This involved combining BC for 1st with all other runners for 2nd and bet in proportion to the estimated Exacta dividend. This betting method is referred to as a Dutchbook exotic and the actual bets I made are shown below.
Note that this technique can be used on virtually any race where there is a short priced fav at 1.50 or less. Doing the Dutchbook calculations can be a daunting task but there is some very smart software out there which does all of this for you plus submit the bets … and all with a few clicks of the mouse.
Go to www.tabprobet.com.au and download TAB Probet Lite . And what’s more its FREE !