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Home » Uncategorized » Take Black Caviar in a Box Trifecta ? Not on your Nelly !

Take Black Caviar in a Box Trifecta ? Not on your Nelly !

Nelly2

Max Presnell, in Saturday  13/4/2013 S.M.H www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing was very accurate in his predictions of the dangers to Nelly.  Epaulette and Bel Sprinter. They ran 2nd and 3rd respectively !

But Max’s advice was to combine the 3 runners in a BOX Trifecta.  Max is a very astute form assessor but to suggest taking a BOX trifecta in the mighty mare’s race was IMHO bad advice to his faithful followers.

Why spend 2/3rd of your money taking combinations that didn’t include BC for the win ?  However many punters must have followed Max’s advice as the Trifecta paid a very handsome dividend of $29.30 in NSW and 10 cents less in VIC.

A better approach would have been to bet  just the 2 combinations  (9-2-11 and 9-11-2 ) in proportion to their probability of winning. This can be done very easily using TAB Probet Lite which is a FREE betting product currently being offer by TABCORP. Go to www.tabprobet.com.au to download.  But you had better hurry because the FREE deal probably won’t be around for much longer.

NellyTri2

So what was the advantage of NOT boxing the 3 horses ? A box trifecta for $10 on 2-9-11 would have returned $48.83 whereas  taking the 2 combos in a dutch trifecta paid  $131.85 meaning an extra profit of $83.

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